Every major U.S. presidential poll had Trump and Kamala on a coin toss right up to the Election.
But the reality ended up being that Trump had a definitive victory, not only winning the electoral college but also the popular vote.
What’s odd is that I live in NYC, and here, betting websites were advertising the real-time odds on electronic Ad-boards throughout the city.
And right before the election, the odds were always around 52% to 48% favoring Trump. Meaning, that the betting websites were far more accurate of polls than the best polls.
See, what it is, is that people will lie to a pollster, but they’ll always tell the truth about their assessment when trying to make money.
The way polls are unnecessary, and even unreasonable with sports, because public betting determines odds, the same will happen with politics going forward.
Right now, if a statistician wants to study sports odds, they’d be a fool to take a poll. Betting is the poll. It’s a far superior system. Political betting has effectively ended the art of political polling.
Now, you might say that more men bet money on such bets than women, so it is not an effective measure, as the measure is skewed heavily to a male viewpoint. But even though it is mostly men betting on these gambling sites, these men are betting in private with the goal being to win money, not to pick what they hope. Meaning when people bet, they are more likely to bet on what they think will happen than what they want to happen. If a man loved Trump but thought Kamala would win because the zeitgeist said such, then the private bet to make money would have gone to Kamala. But those who were betting, read the zeitgeist, and bet on Trump, and they ended up being more accurate than the polls.
